As of May 2016, the Mosul Dam in Iraq is believed to be at critical risk of failure and has been described as 'the most dangerous dam in the world'. The problem is a complex mixture of geology, engineering uncertainty and political turmoil as war continues to rage in the region. Since the ISIS (Daesh) group occupied the dam briefly in August 2014, the environment for proper geotechnical maintenance of the dam has been severely degraded.
This FloodNET dataset shows the potential impact of a collapse of the Mosul Dam on the upper Tigris river valley. It uses the freely-accessible SRTM 100m-resolution digital elevation model. The map shows flood risk intensity where white is highest risk and black is lowest risk. This is risk is calculated by using the FloodNET model to determine how frequently each part of the map is flooded for all possible flood levels from 2 m above normal river level up to 24.5 m above normal river levels. This is representative of the predicted maximum flood level determined by hydraulic modelling of dam break scenarios for the Mosul Dam by Al-Taiee and Rasheed (2009).
FloodNET is a novel agent-based modelling approach which allows rapid estimation of flood areas and risk indices. To see a more detailed view of the flood risk in Mosul City, click here.